Studies Link iPhone and Smartphones to Global Decline in Birth Rates Since 2007

Global birth rates have declined at a similar pace since 2007, despite varying economic and social conditions. Two recent studies suggest that the rise of the iPhone and smartphones may have contributed to this trend. Researchers highlight a significant drop in the US general fertility rate, which fell from about 65–70 births per 1,000 women in 2007 to 54 in 2024, marking a 22 percent decrease over 17 years.

Key Highlights

• US general fertility rate fell 22 percent from 2007 to 2024.
• iPhone access linked to 4.5–8 percent drop in teen births in US counties.
• Global study found similar declines in teenage fertility after smartphones became widespread.
• In-person socializing dropped 44 percent while computer use rose 336 percent between 2003 and 2019.

iPhone Access and US Birth Rates

A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research examined the impact of the iPhone on US birth rates between 2007 and 2011. During this period, the iPhone was available only through AT&T. The study compared counties with widespread AT&T coverage to those with little or none, using this as a natural experiment.

Researchers found that iPhone access reduced births by 4.5 to 8 percent among women aged 15 to 19, and by 3.2 to 6.6 percent among women aged 20 to 24. These figures suggest the iPhone may account for 33 to 52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15 to 44 during this period.

Between 2007 and 2024, birth rates among women aged 15 to 19 fell by 70 percent, and by 47 percent for those aged 20 to 24. In contrast, rates for women aged 30 to 34 declined by only 7 percent, while those aged 35 to 39 increased by 14 percent. In counties without AT&T coverage, teen births dropped by 13.8 percent, compared to 18.9 percent in counties with partial coverage and 26 percent in counties with near-universal coverage.

Global Trends and Contributing Factors

A separate study by University of Cincinnati economists analyzed smartphone penetration and teenage fertility rates in 128 countries using World Bank data. The study found that countries with different healthcare systems, welfare regimes, and demographic trends all experienced similar declines in birth rates after smartphones became widely available.

Researchers concluded that a "common global technology shock" likely contributed to this trend. Countries such as Iran, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Chile, Mexico, and Turkey saw accelerated declines in teenage fertility rates as smartphones became more common. In the United States, teenage fertility fell fastest in counties with better high-speed internet access.

The studies also observed changes in social behavior. In-person socializing and communication dropped from 68 minutes per day in 2003 to 38 minutes in 2019, a 44 percent decrease. Meanwhile, time spent on computers rose from 22 to 96 minutes per day, a 336 percent increase.

Broader Implications

Both studies acknowledge that smartphones are not the sole factor in declining birth rates. Other influences include economic events, access to contraception, and changing social norms. However, the findings come as birth rates fall in both high- and middle-income countries. The US fertility rate is at an all-time low, and Canada recorded a rate of 1.25 children per woman in 2024. Asian economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea also face shrinking populations despite policy efforts. Middle-income countries like India and Brazil are seeing rapid declines, while some of the poorest countries still have high birth rates.